Déjà vu?

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Chart courtesy of http://www.chartoftheday.com

This chart compares the movement of the fed funds rate (gray line) to that of the 10-year Treasury bond yield (thick blue line). There are several points of interest. For one the fed funds rate is significantly higher than that of the 10-year Treasury bond (inverted yield curve). The last two times that happened (1989 and 2000), a recession soon followed. Also note how the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has tended to peak before a major peak in the fed funds rate and also note how the 10-year is still within the confines of a long-term downtrend.